RLX Technology (RLX) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$1.72−0.01 (−0.6%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

RLX Technology shares trade at $1.72, which a recent note describes as trading well below a separate fair value estimate of US$2.77, alongside a stated seven-day decline of 27.12%. The company's last earnings call, held 14 August 2026, pointed to Q2 2026 revenue growth of 14.8% year-over-year on international expansion, with gross profit up 47.8% YoY to RMB 367.8 million, while sequential moderation was attributed to trade inventory normalization after a Q1 shipment pull-forward tied to regulatory export adjustments rather than weaker demand.

The stock sits below both its 50-day average of $1.80 and 200-day average of $2.07, with the 50-day also below the 200-day, reflecting a broader downtrend that includes declines of -13.1% over three months and -27.1% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 58.6, placing RLX in the Neutral zone, down 1.4 over the last five sessions. Against Gekko Fair Value of $3.25, the current price sits 47.1% below that level.

The next earnings date falls on 13 November 2026, 31 days out, before the open, placing it outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report saw an EPS of $0.03 against an estimate of $0.63, with a -6.5% reaction, and RLX has beaten estimates in 3 of 8 recent quarters, averaging an absolute reaction of 6.7%. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the respective windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +7.9% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them. Consensus carries a target of $2.78, implying 61.9% upside per that estimate.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

RLX Technology price vs fair value

▲$3.25$1.72Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $1.72200-day averageGekko Fair Value $3.25

RLX Technology quick facts

Market cap
$2.10B
P/E ratio
15.6
Forward P/E
6.7
EPS, TTM
$0.11
Revenue, TTM
$4.50B
Profit margin
21.9%
Dividend yield
5.78%
Beta
1.13
Volume
1.17M avg 3.88M
1-year return
−27.1%
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±8.3%
50-day average
$1.80
200-day average
$2.07
Next earnings
Nov 13 before open
Shares outstanding
913.5M
52-week range
$1.65$2.60

RLX Technology swing-trade checklist

RLX Technology scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $1.72 is below the 50-day ($1.80) and 200-day ($2.07) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    58.6, Neutral

    Reading 58.6 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    47.1% below

    Price is 47.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 32 days

    Next report Nov 13, 2026, 32 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +7.9% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +7.9% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

RLX Technology stock chart and price history

RLX Technology closed at $1.72 on Oct 12, 2026, −27.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $1.65 to $2.60.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
RLX Technology share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$1.80$2.00$2.20$2.40$2.60NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct1.72

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−2.8%
3 months
−13.1%
6 months
−20.7%
1 year
−27.1%
The full RLX chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open RLX in Gekko

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About RLX Technology

RLX Technology designs and develops electronic vapor products, overseeing their creation from early concept through manufacturing and on to distribution and sale. It operates across the People's Republic of China and has built its presence around its RELX-branded product line, which reaches consumers through dedicated partner stores as well as other retail outlets carrying its goods.

The company works with a network of distributors who supply both the RELX-branded stores and independent retailers, forming the main channel through which its vapor products reach everyday buyers. This distribution structure spans conception, production and direct sales, giving RLX Technology a hand in each stage of bringing its products to market, along with its affiliated entities that support these operations within China.

RLX Technology was founded in 2018 and is headquartered in Beijing, China. Its shares trade under the ticker RLX.

Sector
Producer manufacturing
Website
ir.relxtech.com

RLX Technology GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

RLX Technology’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 58.6, in the Neutral zone, down 1.4 points over five sessions.

010058.6Neutral

Down 1.4 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying40+0.6%+2.5%+4.4%+5.7%
Accumulation272−0.3%−0.4%+0.5%+1.5%
Neutral (current zone)287+0.2%0.0%−0.8%−0.9%
Distribution36−0.3%+0.3%+1.6%−0.3%
Selling0Not available

Average RLX share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the RLX price, zone by zone.Track RLX in Gekko

Is RLX Technology stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

RLX Technology trades 47.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $3.25, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what RLX Technology shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$3.25

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

47.1% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 25.9% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$3$2Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open RLX in Gekko

RLX Technology insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLX Technology, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for RLX in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every RLX insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLX in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in RLX were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for RLX, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open RLX in Gekko

RLX Technology earnings: next date and track record

RLX Technology reports on Nov 13, 2026, before the open (32 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports.

3 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.7%average move across the report
6 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+11.7%Nov ’24−16.6%Mar ’25+0.5%May ’25+7.1%Aug ’25+8.2%Nov ’25+0.4%Mar ’26+2.4%May ’26−6.5%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 14, 2026 AI summary

What they said
RLX Technology reported Q2 2026 revenue growth of 14.8% year-over-year, driven by international expansion, with gross profit rising 47.8% YoY to RMB 367.8 million. Sequential moderation in revenue and gross profit was attributed to trade inventory normalization following Q1 shipment pull-forward from regulatory export adjustments, not demand weakness. The company is prioritizing retail execution upgrades and global operational infrastructure optimization, shifting away from traditional wholesale models toward direct channels and strategic partnerships in Asia and Europe.
Guidance
Management signaled no formal numeric targets but emphasized continued compliant international growth and margin-focused expansion. The company is investing in direct retail channels, strategic distribution alliances, and localized commercial entities, expecting tightening global regulations to benefit compliant operators long-term.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 14, 2026$0.03
est $0.63
−95.2%$148.7M
est $174.0M
−14.5%−6.5%
May 20, 2026$0.26
est $0.21
+23.8%$229.8M
est $167.0M
+37.6%+2.4%
Mar 13, 2026$0.20
est $0.23
−13.9%$163.2M
est $154.3M
+5.7%+0.4%
Nov 14, 2025$0.22
est $0.22
0.0%$145.2M
est $152.1M
−4.5%+8.2%
Aug 22, 2025$0.22
est $0.18
+22.2%$110.7M
est $101.2M
+9.5%+7.1%
May 16, 2025$0.19
est $0.17
+11.8%$97.30M
est $727.9M
−86.6%+0.5%
Mar 14, 2025$0.19
est $0.20
−5.0%$100.8M
est $104.7M
−3.7%−16.6%
Nov 15, 2024$0.20
est $0.20
0.0%——+11.7%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

RLX Technology stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for RLX Technology is $2.78, +61.9% from the last close.

$2.78consensus 12-month target, +61.9% from the last close
−0.8%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+7.9%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

RLX Technology seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, RLX Technology averaged +7.9% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−12.3%2021+61.2%2022+2.4%2023−5.2%2024−3.3%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+5.1%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.3%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+5.5%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+7.9%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+23.3%5 of 5

For scale, RLX’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.3%.

RLX Technology market cap and key statistics

RLX Technology’s market cap is $2.10B, with a P/E ratio of 15.6 and revenue of $4.50B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.10B
P/E ratio
15.6
Forward P/E
6.7
EPS, TTM
$0.11
Gekko Fair Value
$3.25

Trading

Volume
1.17M
Avg volume, 20 days
3.88M
52-week high
$2.60
52-week low
$1.65
Shares outstanding
913.5M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$4.50B
Profit margin
21.9%
Return on equity
6.3%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+0.6%

Risk and income

Beta
1.13
Typical daily move
±2.2%
Typical 20-day move
±8.3%
Dividend yield
5.78%

RLX Technology stock news this week

1 headline about RLX Technology from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

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RLX Technology stock FAQ

What is RLX Technology’s market cap?

RLX Technology’s market cap is $2.10B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.72, with 913.5M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 15.6.

What is the RLX Technology stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for RLX Technology is $2.78, +61.9% from the last close. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is RLX Technology stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate RLX Technology is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $1.72 is 47.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $3.25. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does RLX Technology report earnings next?

RLX Technology is expected to report on Nov 13, 2026, before the market opens (32 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.03 per share on revenue of $260.3M. RLX Technology beat the earnings estimate in 3 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.7% on average across the report.

What is RLX Technology’s 52-week high and low?

RLX Technology’s 52-week high is $2.60 and its 52-week low is $1.65; it closed at $1.72 on Oct 12, 2026, −27.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $6.47 on Oct 19, 2021.

Is RLX Technology stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value and earnings risk), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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