NASDAQ: PEGA

Pegasystems (PEGA) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$33.23−0.51 (−1.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Pegasystems draws fresh analyst attention this week as DA Davidson downgrades the stock from Buy to Neutral, citing increasing competition from frontier model providers affecting financial results, and sets a $32.00 price target. Separate coverage notes another firm raising Pegasystems to Hold following quarterly results that missed EPS and revenue expectations, though revenue did increase year-over-year. Elsewhere, Pegasystems slipped alongside UiPath and ServiceNow, with commentary pointing to sector-specific headwinds in enterprise automation rather than a broader software downturn.

Pegasystems closes at $33.23, down 1.5%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $33.45 and its 200-day average of $40.06, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 60.8, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Current price sits 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $36.05.

Earnings are scheduled for 20 October 2026, 21 days out, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 21 July showed EPS of $0.18 against a $0.23 estimate, with an 18% reaction. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in their respective windows. Seasonality from this point in the calendar shows the next 20 trading days averaging +5.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of those years. Consensus among 10 firms stands at 4 buy and 6 hold ratings, with a consensus target of $40.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Pegasystems price vs fair value

$36.05$33.23Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $33.23200-day averageGekko Fair Value $36.05

Pegasystems quick facts

Market cap
$5.46B
P/E ratio
20
Forward P/E
13.4
EPS, TTM
$1.71
Revenue, TTM
$1.74B
Profit margin
18.7%
Dividend yield
0.34%
Beta
0.89
Volume
1.41M avg 2.33M
1-year return
−43.0%
Typical daily move
±4.4%
Typical 20-day move
±8%
50-day average
$33.45
200-day average
$40.06
Next earnings
Oct 20
Shares outstanding
164.4M
52-week range
$25.10$68.10

Pegasystems swing-trade checklist

Pegasystems scores 3 supportive, 0 mixed and 2 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive0 mixed2 headwinds

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $33.23 is below the 50-day ($33.45) and 200-day ($40.06) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.8, Accumulation

    Reading 60.8 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    7.8% below

    Price is 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 21 days

    Reports on Oct 20, 2026, 21 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +5.6% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +5.6% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Pegasystems stock chart and price history

Pegasystems closed at $33.23 on Sep 28, 2026, −43.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $25.10 to $68.10.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Pegasystems share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$30$40$50$60NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep33.23

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−7.4%
3 months
+9.1%
6 months
−17.6%
1 year
−43.0%
The full PEGA chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open PEGA in Gekko

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About Pegasystems

Pegasystems builds software that helps large organizations manage how they interact with customers and run internal workflows. Its offerings include a platform for building business applications, along with tools that guide customer decisions, automate sales tasks, and support customer service teams so that companies can respond to client needs more efficiently while easing the workload on staff.

The company also provides cloud infrastructure that lets clients build, test, and roll out applications, and it backs its products with training programs and hands-on implementation and technical support. Pegasystems reaches its customers through its own sales teams as well as through partnerships with other technology firms and developers. Its client base spans industries such as banking and finance, healthcare, life sciences, telecommunications, media, insurance, manufacturing, government, and consumer-facing businesses.

Founded in 1983 and based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, Pegasystems operates across the Americas, the United Kingdom, other parts of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Asia-Pacific. The company's shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker PEGA.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Technology services
Industry
Information technology services
Website
pega.com

Pegasystems GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Pegasystems’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.8, in the Accumulation zone, up 3.7 points over five sessions.

010060.8Accumulation

Up 3.7 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying30+1.5%+2.1%+2.3%+8.5%
Accumulation (current zone)209+1.3%+2.0%+2.5%+5.7%
Neutral3630.0%+0.2%+1.5%+1.3%
Distribution60+0.8%+2.8%+2.3%+2.2%
Selling10+1.0%+1.4%+19.2%+18.4%

Average PEGA share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the PEGA price, zone by zone.Track PEGA in Gekko

Is Pegasystems stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Pegasystems trades 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $36.05, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Pegasystems shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$36.05

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

7.8% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open PEGA in Gekko

Pegasystems insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Pegasystems, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for PEGA in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every PEGA insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PEGA in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in PEGA were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for PEGA, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open PEGA in Gekko

Buybacks

Pegasystems has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$1.00B, Feb 10, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$169.4M
As a share of market cap
3.10%
Trailing four quarters
$580.1M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold PEGA.

0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Pegasystems earnings: next date and track record

Pegasystems reports on Oct 20, 2026 (21 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.

6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±17.3%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+13.4%Oct ’24−17.5%Feb ’25+33.4%Apr ’25+13.0%Jul ’25+19.7%Oct ’25−9.3%Feb ’26−14.4%Apr ’26−18.0%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 21, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Pegasystems Q2 2026 earnings call: Management discussed market shifts driven by AI, buyer confusion from token-based pricing, and their strategic advantages with Pega's architecture and deterministic, no-token-cost model. They acknowledged a weaker first half due to renewal timing (back-half weighted renewals), unprecedented market uncertainty causing elongated deals, and imperfect execution on go-to-market changes. Management outlined corrective actions—greater prospecting, executive engagement, leveraging Blueprint and new Infinity Studio (Pega 26) to shorten sales cycles and improve conversions. Financials: first-half performance underwhelmed; ACV growth slowed due to elongated deals and fewer renewals earlier in the year. Management remains committed to Rule of 40 and cash-flow generation (free cash flow target discussed later). They will temper investments and focus on efficiency across margins and spend. During Q&A, management emphasized that pipeline remains healthy, deals are elongating but not disappearing, and they expect unlocking in the back half though timing is uncertain. Introduced Infinity Studio's integration with Blueprint AI as a potential catalyst. Closing remarks stressed experience and confidence in execution.
Guidance
Management referenced a $575 million free cash flow outlook for the year and emphasized its importance; they also discussed expectation that ACV growth should accelerate in the back half but did not provide explicit updated ACV guidance or numeric revenue guidance. They declined to re-guide given uncertainty.
Risks flagged
Risk factors mentioned include: buyer uncertainty from AI/token-based pricing leading to longer decision cycles; potential inability to convert elongated pipeline deals in the back half (i.e., risk that confusion persists longer); execution risk in go-to-market changes; any ACV shortfall could pressure free cash flow targets.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 21, 2026$0.18
est $0.23
−21.7%$420.7M
est $427.4M
−1.6%−18.0%
Apr 21, 2026$0.46
est $0.69
−33.3%$430.0M
est $455.6M
−5.6%−14.4%
Feb 10, 2026$0.76
est $0.73
+3.5%$504.3M
est $491.8M
+2.5%−9.3%
Oct 21, 2025$0.30
est $0.20
+50.0%$381.4M
est $494.6M
−22.9%+19.7%
Jul 22, 2025$0.28
est $0.24
+14.7%$384.5M
est $361.9M
+6.3%+13.0%
Apr 22, 2025$0.76
est $0.24
+213.8%$475.6M
est $357.0M
+33.2%+33.4%
Feb 12, 2025$1.61
est $1.47
+9.5%$490.8M
est $471.4M
+4.1%−17.5%
Oct 23, 2024$0.39
est $0.36
+8.3%$325.1M
est $473.8M
−31.4%+13.4%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Pegasystems stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Pegasystems is $40.00, +20.4% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$40.00consensus 12-month target, +20.4% from the last close
Low $25High $55
Buy4
Hold6
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 28D.A. DavidsonHold, downgraded$32−3.7%
Sep 17J.P. MorganHold, downgraded$47+41.4%
Aug 19Rosenblatt SecuritiesBuy, maintained——
Aug 6BarclaysBuy, maintained$39+17.4%
Jul 25William BlairHold, downgraded——
+2.5%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+5.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.4%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Pegasystems seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Pegasystems averaged +5.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−2.4%2021+10.4%2022−4.8%2023+9.8%2024+13.7%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.8%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days−3.5%1 of 5
Next 15 trading days−3.5%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+5.6%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.6%4 of 5

For scale, PEGA’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8%.

Pegasystems market cap and key statistics

Pegasystems’s market cap is $5.46B, with a P/E ratio of 20 and revenue of $1.74B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.46B
P/E ratio
20
Forward P/E
13.4
EPS, TTM
$1.71
Gekko Fair Value
$36.05

Trading

Volume
1.41M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.33M
52-week high
$68.10
52-week low
$25.10
Shares outstanding
164.4M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.74B
Profit margin
18.7%
Return on equity
54.7%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
−52.9%

Risk and income

Beta
0.89
Typical daily move
±4.4%
Typical 20-day move
±8%
Dividend yield
0.34%

Pegasystems stock news this week

Coverage of Pegasystems this week reads neutral: 1 positive, 4 neutral and 2 negative headlines.

News sentiment neutral

Pegasystems peers

Pegasystems’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
IBMInternational Business Machines−0.8%Accumulation16.1% below
FTNTFortinet+3.3%Neutral32.5% above
NETCloudflare+4.3%Neutral22.9% above
ACNAccenture+0.6%Neutral9.7% below
WDAYWorkday+2.3%Neutral13.2% above
CRDOCredo Technology−6.5%Neutral19.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Pegasystems stock FAQ

What is Pegasystems’s market cap?

Pegasystems’s market cap is $5.46B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $33.23, with 164.4M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.

What is the Pegasystems stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Pegasystems is $40.00, +20.4% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 4 rate it a buy, 6 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Pegasystems stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Pegasystems is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $33.23 is 7.8% below Gekko Fair Value of $36.05. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Pegasystems report earnings next?

Pegasystems is expected to report on Oct 20, 2026 (21 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.45 per share on revenue of $425.4M. Pegasystems beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 17.3% on average across the report.

What is Pegasystems’s 52-week high and low?

Pegasystems’s 52-week high is $68.10 and its 52-week low is $25.10; it closed at $33.23 on Sep 28, 2026, −43.0% over the past year.

Is Pegasystems stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality) and 2 as headwinds (trend and earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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