NYSE: MC

Moelis (MC) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$58.10−0.64 (−1.1%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Moelis shares see mostly routine activity this week, with several filings showing dividend-equivalent RSU awards to the Principal Accounting Officer, General Counsel and a director, all dated September 17. No earnings, deal or regulatory headlines accompany these filings.

MC closes at $58.10, down 1.1%, sitting below both its 50-day average of $65.62 and 200-day average of $65.87, with the 50-day also below the 200-day. The stock has fallen 15.3% over one month and 19% over the past year, though it remains up 7% over six months. The GekkoIndex reads 67.7, placing it in the Accumulation zone, down 2.6 over five days. Price sits 14.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $68.29.

The next earnings date falls on 4 November, 36 days out and outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 29 July showed EPS of $0.63 against a $0.62 estimate, with a -0.3% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters, with an average absolute reaction of 4.1%. No insider, Congress or unusual options activity appears in the current windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 2.7% return over 5 years, rising in 2 of those years. Consensus among 7 analysts stands at 2 buy, 4 hold and 1 sell, with a consensus target of $72 implying 23.9% upside.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Moelis price vs fair value

$68.29$58.10Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $58.10200-day averageGekko Fair Value $68.29

Moelis quick facts

Market cap
$4.30B
P/E ratio
20.3
Forward P/E
13.4
EPS, TTM
$2.84
Revenue, TTM
$1.57B
Profit margin
14.5%
Dividend yield
4.47%
Beta
1.84
Volume
729,282 avg 800,619
1-year return
−19.0%
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.2%
50-day average
$65.62
200-day average
$65.87
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
74.08M
52-week range
$51.06$78.22

Moelis swing-trade checklist

Moelis scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $58.10 is below the 50-day ($65.62) and 200-day ($65.87) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    67.7, Accumulation

    Reading 67.7 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    14.9% below

    Price is 14.9% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitymixed

    +2.7% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +2.7% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Moelis stock chart and price history

Moelis closed at $58.10 on Sep 28, 2026, −19.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $51.06 to $78.22.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Moelis share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$55$60$65$70$75NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep58.10

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−15.3%
3 months
−7.6%
6 months
+7.0%
1 year
−19.0%
The full MC chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open MC in Gekko

Follow Moelis through every session

Put MC on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

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About Moelis

Moelis provides independent advisory services to companies navigating major financial decisions. Its work centers on guiding clients through mergers and acquisitions, restructurings, recapitalizations, and transactions tied to raising capital. The firm is recognized for this focused advisory role rather than for lending or trading activities.

Clients range widely in size and type, including large multinational corporations, smaller private businesses, financial sponsors, individual entrepreneurs, government bodies, and sovereign wealth funds. Moelis reaches these clients across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Australia, and extends its presence further through partnerships, including one with Alfaro, Dávila y Scherer, S.C. in Mexico and another with MA Moelis Australia.

The company was established in 2007 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Its shares trade on the NYSE under the ticker MC.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Finance
Industry
Investment banks/Brokers
Website
moelis.com

Moelis GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Moelis’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 67.7, in the Accumulation zone, down 2.6 points over five sessions.

010067.7Accumulation

Down 2.6 points over five sessions, from the Buying zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying49−0.1%+0.1%−0.9%+8.8%
Accumulation (current zone)177+0.8%+1.3%+4.9%+8.3%
Neutral3990.0%+0.2%−0.3%−0.6%
Distribution46−0.5%−1.2%−1.7%+1.6%
Selling1Too few readings yet

Average MC share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the MC price, zone by zone.Track MC in Gekko

Is Moelis stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Moelis trades 14.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $68.29, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Moelis shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$68.29

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

14.9% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open MC in Gekko

Moelis insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Moelis, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for MC in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every MC insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MC in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in MC were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for MC, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open MC in Gekko

Buybacks

Moelis has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$300.0M, Feb 4, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$23.50M
As a share of market cap
0.55%
Trailing four quarters
$202.1M

From company filings.

Moelis earnings: next date and track record

Moelis reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.1%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

−4.9%Oct ’24+4.6%Feb ’25+2.4%Apr ’25−0.8%Jul ’25−9.9%Oct ’25+3.3%Feb ’26−6.6%Apr ’26−0.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Moelis reported record Q2 2026 revenues of $409M, up 12% YoY, with H1 revenues of $729M, up 9%. Results were driven by higher average fees per transaction and strong non-M&A businesses including capital markets and private capital advisory. Notable transactions included Taylor Morrison's $8.5B sale to Berkshire Hathaway and IQVIA's $3.8B sale to Eli Lilly. Announced pipeline increased over 80% YoY, with record total pipeline entering H2.
Guidance
Management entered H2 with a record total pipeline and accelerating new business origination, supporting a strong outlook for the remainder of the year. Capital markets activity and GP-led secondaries momentum are expected to continue driving growth.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$0.63
est $0.62
+1.6%$409.4M
est $387.3M
+5.7%−0.3%
Apr 29, 2026$0.48
est $0.62
−22.6%$319.8M
est $321.5M
−0.5%−6.6%
Feb 4, 2026$1.13
est $0.76
+48.7%$487.9M
est $441.2M
+10.6%+3.3%
Oct 29, 2025$0.68
est $0.57
+19.3%$356.9M
est $430.2M
−17.0%−9.9%
Jul 24, 2025$0.53
est $0.32
+65.6%$365.4M
est $307.6M
+18.8%−0.8%
Apr 23, 2025$0.64
est $0.56
+15.3%$306.6M
est $287.8M
+6.5%+2.4%
Feb 5, 2025$1.18
est $0.49
+140.8%$438.7M
est $348.8M
+25.8%+4.6%
Oct 23, 2024$0.22
est $0.19
+15.8%$273.8M
est $328.8M
−16.7%−4.9%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Moelis stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Moelis is $72.00, +23.9% from the last close, from 7 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$72.00consensus 12-month target, +23.9% from the last close
Low $60High $85
Buy2
Hold4
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 7 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Aug 20Deutsche Bank Buy, reiterated$75+29.1%
Jul 31Bank of America SecuritiesHold, maintained——
Jul 30Morgan StanleyBuy, maintained$85+46.3%
Jul 30BMO CapitalHold, maintained$72+23.9%
Jul 30KBWHold, reiterated$68+17.0%
+4.9%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+2.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.8%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Moelis seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Moelis averaged +2.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+8.5%2021+21.4%2022−11.6%2023−2.1%2024−0.2%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+1.1%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.7%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+2.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+2.7%2 of 5
Next 30 trading days+7.1%3 of 5

For scale, MC’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.2%.

Moelis market cap and key statistics

Moelis’s market cap is $4.30B, with a P/E ratio of 20.3 and revenue of $1.57B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$4.30B
P/E ratio
20.3
Forward P/E
13.4
EPS, TTM
$2.84
Gekko Fair Value
$68.29

Trading

Volume
729,282
Avg volume, 20 days
800,619
52-week high
$78.22
52-week low
$51.06
Shares outstanding
74.08M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.57B
Profit margin
14.5%
Return on equity
41.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+17.1%

Risk and income

Beta
1.84
Typical daily move
±3.8%
Typical 20-day move
±7.2%
Dividend yield
4.47%

Moelis peers

Moelis’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
GSGoldman Sachs−1.6%Accumulation13.7% below
SCHWCharles Schwab−0.5%Buying13.9% below
IBKRInteractive Brokers−0.8%Accumulation10.2% below
HOODRobinhood Markets−1.3%Neutral1.5% above
BNYBank of New York Mellon−0.8%Accumulation8.6% below
CMECME−1.1%Accumulation4.3% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Moelis stock FAQ

What is Moelis’s market cap?

Moelis’s market cap is $4.30B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.10, with 74.08M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 20.3.

What is the Moelis stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Moelis is $72.00, +23.9% from the last close. Of the 7 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 4 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Moelis stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Moelis is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $58.10 is 14.9% below Gekko Fair Value of $68.29. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Moelis report earnings next?

Moelis is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.74 per share on revenue of $435.7M. Moelis beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.1% on average across the report.

What is Moelis’s 52-week high and low?

Moelis’s 52-week high is $78.22 and its 52-week low is $51.06; it closed at $58.10 on Sep 28, 2026, −19.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $82.89 on Feb 6, 2025.

Is Moelis stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and earnings risk), 1 as mixed (seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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