Insider buying last 90 days
$263Kin 2 open-market purchases
| Filed | Insider | Type | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 | Jaros Carey F. director | Purchase | $176K |
| Aug 21 | Miller Paul Blaine officer: See Remarks | Purchase | $87K |
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
NASDAQ: GO
Grocery Outlet (GO) Stock Analysis & Forecast
Oct 12 close
$11.92−0.04 (−0.3%)
Gekko Brief
AI summaryOct 12 closeGrocery Outlet's recent move centers on an analyst action and an upcoming earnings date. Bank of America upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy, raising its price target from $12.50 to $15.00, citing improved access to attractively priced merchandise and new price parity for delivery platforms, even as shares slipped 1.27 percent on the day of the call. Separately, the company confirmed it will report Q3 2026 earnings on 3 November 2026 after market close, with analysts anticipating $0.1516 per share on revenues of $1.17 billion.
Shares closed at $11.92, down 0.3%, but remain above both the 50-day average of $11.30 and the 200-day average of $9.34, with the 50-day above the 200-day. The GekkoIndex reads 51.9, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 3.5 over five sessions. Price sits 7.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.11.
Earnings on 3 November fall within the next 20 trading days, a window that has historically carried an average move of 17.2% following results, with 6 beats in the last 8 quarters. Seasonality for this stretch of the calendar shows a 5-year average of -2.7%, rising in 2 of those years. Smart money activity includes 2 insider purchases totaling $262,700 over the last 90 days, alongside consensus analyst views split across 1 buy, 8 hold, and 1 sell, with a consensus target of $10.92.
Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.
Grocery Outlet price vs fair value
Close $11.92200-day averageGekko Fair Value $11.11
Grocery Outlet quick facts
- Market cap
- $1.18B
- P/E ratio
- —
- Forward P/E
- 14.9
- EPS, TTM
- −$3.88
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.74B
- Profit margin
- -8%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.67
- Volume
- 1.39M avg 2.12M
- 1-year return
- −22.9%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.6%
- 50-day average
- $11.30
- 200-day average
- $9.34
- Next earnings
- Nov 3 after close
- Shares outstanding
- 99.08M
Grocery Outlet swing-trade checklist
Grocery Outlet scores 2 supportive, 1 mixed and 3 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
2 supportive1 mixed3 headwinds
- Trendsupportive
Above 50 and 200-day
Close $11.92 is above the 50-day ($11.30) and 200-day ($9.34) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.
See the chart - GekkoIndexmixed
51.9, Neutral
Reading 51.9 is in the Neutral zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valueheadwind
7.3% above
Price is 7.3% above Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 90 days: 2 open-market insider purchases.
See smart money - Earnings riskheadwind
Reports in 22 days
Reports on Nov 3, 2026, 22 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalityheadwind
−2.7% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged −2.7% over 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
Grocery Outlet stock chart and price history
Grocery Outlet closed at $11.92 on Oct 12, 2026, −22.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $5.66 to $15.93.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- +6.0%
- 3 months
- +21.3%
- 6 months
- +69.3%
- 1 year
- −22.9%
The full GO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open GO in Gekko
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About Grocery Outlet
Grocery Outlet runs a chain of discount grocery stores across the United States, where shoppers can find name-brand food, household items, and fresh goods. The stores operate under an independent ownership model rather than being run directly by the parent company. This setup is a defining feature of how the business presents itself to customers in local markets.
Each location is independently operated, which shapes how the company organizes its retail footprint and generates revenue through its network of stores. The focus remains on consumables and fresh products sold at reduced prices, catering to budget-conscious grocery shoppers nationwide.
Grocery Outlet traces its founding back to 1946, when Jim Read established the business, and it is now headquartered in Emeryville, California. Shares of the company are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker GO.
- Listed
- NASDAQ
- Sector
- Retail trade
- Industry
- Food retail
- Website
- groceryoutlet.com
Grocery Outlet GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
Grocery Outlet’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 51.9, in the Neutral zone, down 3.5 points over five sessions.
51.9Neutral
Down 3.5 points over five sessions.
Reading for Oct 12, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 72 | +1.2% | +3.9% | ||
| Accumulation | 294 | −0.7% | −1.1% | ||
| Neutral (current zone) | 298 | −0.2% | −2.0% | ||
| Distribution | 16 | +0.3% | −5.1% | ||
| Selling | 2 | Too few readings yet | |||
Average GO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the GO price, zone by zone.Track GO in Gekko
Is Grocery Outlet stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
Grocery Outlet trades 7.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.11, so the shares are overvalued on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what Grocery Outlet shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$11.11
Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026
7.3% Overvalued
At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 13.4% above the estimate.
Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open GO in Gekko
Grocery Outlet insider and Congress trading
Insiders filed 2 open-market purchases in Grocery Outlet worth $263K, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in GO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for GO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GO in Gekko
Buybacks
Grocery Outlet has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Dec 31, 2024
- $25.05M
- As a share of market cap
- 2.12%
- Trailing four quarters
- $81.36M
From company filings.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30
1of the funds Gekko tracks holds GO.
1added0opened0trimmed0sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko
Grocery Outlet earnings: next date and track record
Grocery Outlet reports on Nov 3, 2026, after the close (22 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 3, 2026
Expected after the close, 22 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.15
- Revenue estimate
- $1.17B
6 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±17.2%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 12, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- Grocery Outlet Q2 2026 revenue grew 1% to $1.19 billion with comparable store sales down 30 basis points, a 70 basis point sequential improvement from Q1. Traffic increased 1.8% while basket declined 2.1%. Gross margin of 30.2% exceeded outlook due to lower promotional spending. Adjusted EBITDA reached ~$66 million and adjusted EPS of $0.20, both above guidance. Key drivers included strengthened opportunistic assortment, improved supplier relationships, and disciplined cost management.
- Guidance
- Management expressed confidence in continued improvement based on first-half progress, with opportunistic comp sales turning positive in May and June. Company is prioritizing reduced reliance on price investment, favoring product strength and targeted marketing to drive sustainable comp growth.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $0.20 est $0.13 | $1.19B est $1.17B | +9.9% |
| May 13, 2026 | $0.05 est $0.02 | $1.17B est $1.15B | −3.6% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.19 est $0.21 | $1.22B est $1.22B | −28.5% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $0.21 est $0.19 | $1.17B est $1.23B | −8.5% |
| Aug 5, 2025 | $0.23 est $0.17 | $1.18B est $1.18B | +38.5% |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.13 est $0.07 | $1.13B est $1.12B | −6.0% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $0.15 est $0.17 | $1.10B est $1.09B | −30.4% |
| Nov 5, 2024 | $0.28 est $0.27 | $1.11B est $1.09B | +11.8% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
Grocery Outlet stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Grocery Outlet is $10.92, −8.4% from the last close, from 10 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$10.92consensus 12-month target, −8.4% from the last close
Now $11.92Avg $10.92
Low $6High $15
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 10 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30 | Bank of America Securities | $15 | +25.8% |
| Sep 8 | Goldman Sachs | $6 | −49.7% |
| Aug 20 | Telsey Advisory | $12 | +0.7% |
| Aug 18 | TD Cowen | $12 | +0.7% |
| Aug 17 | Telsey Advisory | $12 | +0.7% |
−2.0%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
−2.7%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
Grocery Outlet seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Grocery Outlet averaged −2.7% across the last 5 years, rising in 2 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +2.5% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +0.9% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | −2.8% | 3 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | −2.7% | 2 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +1.8% | 3 of 5 |
For scale, GO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7.6%.
Grocery Outlet market cap and key statistics
Grocery Outlet’s market cap is $1.18B and revenue of $4.74B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $1.18B
- Forward P/E
- 14.9
- EPS, TTM
- −$3.88
- Gekko Fair Value
- $11.11
Trading
- Volume
- 1.39M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 2.12M
- 52-week high
- $15.93
- 52-week low
- $5.66
- Shares outstanding
- 99.08M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $4.74B
- Profit margin
- -8%
- Return on equity
- -38.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +13.6%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.67
- Typical daily move
- ±4.2%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±7.6%
Grocery Outlet stock news this week
2 headlines about Grocery Outlet from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
- Grocery Outlet Q3 2026 Earnings Date and EstimatesMarketBeat, Oct 8
- Grocery Outlet stock gets BofA upgrade despite a 1.27 percent dropAD HOC NEWS, Oct 5
Grocery Outlet peers
Grocery Outlet’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.
| Stock | GekkoIndex zone | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|
| KRKroger | Neutral | 7.6% below |
| TBBBBBB Foods | Distribution | 32.6% above |
| ACIAlbertsons Companies | Neutral | 34.5% below |
| SFMSprouts Farmers Market | Accumulation | 31.6% below |
| WMKWeis Markets | Neutral | 43.4% above |
| IMKTAIngles Markets | Neutral | 14.6% below |
A peer links to its own page where one exists.
Grocery Outlet stock FAQ
What is Grocery Outlet’s market cap?
Grocery Outlet’s market cap is $1.18B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.92, with 99.08M shares outstanding.
What is the Grocery Outlet stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Grocery Outlet is $10.92, −8.4% from the last close. Of the 10 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 8 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is Grocery Outlet stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate Grocery Outlet is overvalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $11.92 is 7.3% above Gekko Fair Value of $11.11. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does Grocery Outlet report earnings next?
Grocery Outlet is expected to report on Nov 3, 2026, after the market closes (22 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.17B. Grocery Outlet beat the earnings estimate in 6 of its last 8 reports, moving 17.2% on average across the report.
What is Grocery Outlet’s 52-week high and low?
Grocery Outlet’s 52-week high is $15.93 and its 52-week low is $5.66; it closed at $11.92 on Oct 12, 2026, −22.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $46.37 on Aug 8, 2022.
Is Grocery Outlet stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend and smart money), 1 as mixed (gekkoindex) and 3 as headwinds (fair value, earnings risk and seasonality). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
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