NASDAQ: SFM

Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$63.45+0.96 (+1.5%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Sprouts Farmers Market shares have been under pressure this week amid concerns over soft comparable-store sales trends and an upcoming CEO transition, with the stock sliding 4.1% on 25 September. This follows second quarter 2026 results showing 5% net sales growth to $2.3 billion, though comparable store sales declined roughly 1%, with full-year guidance pointing to muted same-store growth. Deutsche Bank maintained its Hold rating while cutting its target price to $77, and separately, investor Michael Burry increased his stake in the company to a "full position" after the stock's decline from its 2025 high.

SFM closed at $63.45, up 1.5%, but remains below both its 50-day average of $78.08 and 200-day average of $78.19, with the 50-day below the 200-day. The stock sits near its 52-week low of $61.88, having fallen 21.7% over the past month and 43% over the past year. The GekkoIndex reads 76.5, placing it in the Buying zone, while the price stands 23.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $82.56.

Earnings are scheduled for 4 November, 36 days out, placing the report outside a typical 20-trading-day holding window. Over the last 90 days, Congress members recorded 2 buys and 0 sales. Seasonality data from this point in the calendar shows the next 20 trading days averaging a 0.8% gain over 5 years, rising in 3 of them. Analyst consensus reflects 8 buy and 5 hold ratings among 13 firms, with a consensus target of $95.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Sprouts Farmers Market price vs fair value

$82.56$63.45Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $63.45200-day averageGekko Fair Value $82.56

Sprouts Farmers Market quick facts

Market cap
$5.92B
P/E ratio
12.6
Forward P/E
11.1
EPS, TTM
$5.18
Revenue, TTM
$9.00B
Profit margin
5.6%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.67
Volume
3.06M avg 2.08M
1-year return
−43.0%
Typical daily move
±4.3%
Typical 20-day move
±7%
50-day average
$78.08
200-day average
$78.19
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
93.25M
52-week range
$61.88$114.34

Sprouts Farmers Market swing-trade checklist

Sprouts Farmers Market scores 5 supportive, 0 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

5 supportive0 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendheadwind

    Below 50 and 200-day

    Close $63.45 is below the 50-day ($78.08) and 200-day ($78.19) averages, and the 50-day is below the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    76.5, Buying

    Reading 76.5 is in the Buying zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    23.1% below

    Price is 23.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 90 days: Congress 2 buys / 0 sales.

    See smart money
  • Earnings risksupportive

    Reports in 36 days

    Next report Nov 4, 2026, 36 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +0.8% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +0.8% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Sprouts Farmers Market stock chart and price history

Sprouts Farmers Market closed at $63.45 on Sep 28, 2026, −43.0% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $61.88 to $114.34.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Sprouts Farmers Market share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$80$100$120$140NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep63.45

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−21.7%
3 months
−22.5%
6 months
−18.0%
1 year
−43.0%
The full SFM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open SFM in Gekko

Follow Sprouts Farmers Market through every session

Put SFM on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.

Track SFM in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.

About Sprouts Farmers Market

Sprouts Farmers Market runs grocery stores across the United States that focus on fresh, natural, and organic food. Its shelves cover perishable items such as produce, meat, seafood, deli selections, baked goods, flowers, dairy, and dairy alternatives, alongside shelf-stable goods including packaged groceries, vitamins and supplements, bulk foods, frozen items, beer and wine, and personal care products. The chain is generally recognized for this broad mix of fresh and specialty grocery items under one roof.

The company operates through a network of physical store locations rather than a single flagship site, serving everyday grocery shoppers who are looking for natural and organic alternatives alongside conventional staples. Its stores are spread across multiple states, giving it a footprint that reaches a wide range of local markets rather than concentrating in one region.

Sprouts Farmers Market was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona. Its shares are listed on the NASDAQ under the ticker SFM.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Retail trade
Industry
Food retail
Website
sprouts.com

Sprouts Farmers Market GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Sprouts Farmers Market’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 76.5, in the Buying zone, up 7.6 points over five sessions.

010076.5Buying

Up 7.6 points over five sessions, from the Accumulation zone.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying (current zone)36−2.2%−3.7%−9.4%−22.4%
Accumulation211−0.1%−0.4%+0.5%−4.5%
Neutral332+0.8%+2.0%+3.9%+11.1%
Distribution84+1.1%+1.4%+2.4%+11.7%
Selling9Too few readings yet

Average SFM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Buying readings averaged +3.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Buying zone: Smart money likely accumulating heavily. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the SFM price, zone by zone.Track SFM in Gekko

Is Sprouts Farmers Market stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Sprouts Farmers Market trades 23.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $82.56, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Sprouts Farmers Market shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$82.56

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 26, 2026

23.1% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open SFM in Gekko

Sprouts Farmers Market insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Sprouts Farmers Market, and members of Congress disclosed 2 purchases and 0 sales, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for SFM in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every SFM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open SFM in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

2trades disclosed: 2 purchases and 0 sales.

MemberTypeAmountDisclosed
Gilbert Ray Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$15,001 - $50,000Sep 7
traded Jul 16
Gilbert Ray Cisneros
House, CA, purchase
Purchase$15,001 - $50,000Sep 7
traded Jul 15

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Buybacks

Sprouts Farmers Market has been buying back its own shares.

Latest authorization
$1.00B, Feb 19, 2026
Bought back, quarter ended Jun 28, 2026
$70.00M
As a share of market cap
1.18%
Trailing four quarters
$389.7M

From company filings.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31

1of the funds Gekko tracks holds SFM.

1added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Which funds are on each side, name by name.Unlock in Gekko

Sprouts Farmers Market earnings: next date and track record

Sprouts Farmers Market reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (36 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±10.6%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.3%Oct ’24−18.6%Feb ’25−0.4%Apr ’25−3.4%Jul ’25−27.7%Oct ’25−0.3%Feb ’26+15.7%Apr ’26+11.7%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Sprouts reported second quarter 2026 results largely in line with expectations. Total sales were $2.3 billion, up 5% year-over-year driven by new store openings, while comparable store sales declined ~1%. E-commerce grew >12% and accounted for ~16% of sales; Sprouts brand represented 26% of sales. Gross margin was 38.7%, down 12 bps YoY, pressured by loyalty investments and elevated fuel costs; SG&A increased due to fixed-cost deleverage and investments. EBIT was $174 million. Management emphasized focus on affordability (three-pillar approach: assortment/innovation, Sprouts brand, and price/promotion & personalization), new product innovation (~1,300 new items), supply-chain investments and controlled expansion of self-distribution, and a strong new store pipeline. Management described mixed results from affordability tests (better unit movement but slower traffic response), and noted short-term headwinds from Cyclospora-related shifts in lettuce/salad purchasing and elevated fuel costs. New stores and innovation remain bright spots; loyalty/personalization and targeted pricing are key levers for H2. Management reiterated confidence in guidance but narrowed comp guidance and embedded fuel costs in the outlook.
Guidance
Updated outlook commentary (summarized): - Comparable sales outlook narrowed around the midpoint; July landed slightly negative but sequentially improving. - Q3: Slight EBIT margin pressure (~50 bps) versus prior expectations; gross margin slightly down in Q3 driven by fuel and Cyclospora impacts. - Company is embedding ~$2.5 million per quarter in the second half for fuel (about $5 million midpoint shift in EBIT). - E-commerce expected to continue growing. - Fourth quarter expected to see gross margin up slightly vs. year-ago driven partly by the loyalty program change (full run-rate benefit).
Risks flagged
Mentioned risks and headwinds: - Challenging consumer macro environment (inflation, variable gas prices) pressuring traffic and units per basket. - Elevated and volatile fuel costs embedded in guidance. - Cyclospora outbreak impacting lettuce/salad purchases and customer shopping patterns (shift fresh -> frozen). - Difficult year-over-year comparisons from prior year outsized results. - Early-stage vendor participation in loyalty/personalization (execution risk).
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$1.37
est $1.35
+1.5%$2.33B
est $2.32B
+0.1%+11.7%
Apr 29, 2026$1.71
est $1.68
+1.8%$2.33B
est $2.32B
+0.3%+15.7%
Feb 19, 2026$0.92
est $0.89
+3.9%$2.15B
est $2.15B
−0.2%−0.3%
Oct 29, 2025$1.22
est $1.17
+4.3%$2.20B
est $2.15B
+2.2%−27.7%
Jul 30, 2025$1.35
est $1.24
+8.9%$2.22B
est $2.18B
+1.8%−3.4%
Apr 30, 2025$1.81
est $1.55
+16.8%$2.24B
est $2.21B
+1.4%−0.4%
Feb 20, 2025$0.79
est $0.73
+7.5%$2.00B
est $1.96B
+1.7%−18.6%
Oct 30, 2024$0.91
est $0.77
+18.2%$1.95B
est $1.88B
+3.7%+7.3%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Sprouts Farmers Market stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Sprouts Farmers Market is $95.00, +49.7% from the last close, from 13 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$95.00consensus 12-month target, +49.7% from the last close
Low $77High $114
Buy8
Hold5
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 13 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 25Deutsche Bank Hold, reiterated$77+21.4%
Sep 24BarclaysBuy, maintained$100+57.6%
Sep 23RBC CapitalBuy, maintained$114+79.7%
Sep 23Goldman SachsBuy, maintained$107+68.6%
Sep 23JefferiesBuy, maintained$95+49.7%
−9.4%average 20-day move after past Buying readings
+0.8%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.3%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Sprouts Farmers Market seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Sprouts Farmers Market averaged +0.8% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

−7.7%2021+1.9%2022+1.5%2023+8.8%2024−2.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.5%1 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.8%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days−0.8%2 of 5
Next 20 trading days+0.8%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+4.8%3 of 5

For scale, SFM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 7%.

Sprouts Farmers Market market cap and key statistics

Sprouts Farmers Market’s market cap is $5.92B, with a P/E ratio of 12.6 and revenue of $9.00B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$5.92B
P/E ratio
12.6
Forward P/E
11.1
EPS, TTM
$5.18
Gekko Fair Value
$82.56

Trading

Volume
3.06M
Avg volume, 20 days
2.08M
52-week high
$114.34
52-week low
$61.88
Shares outstanding
93.25M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$9.00B
Profit margin
5.6%
Return on equity
35.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+1.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.67
Typical daily move
±4.3%
Typical 20-day move
±7%

Sprouts Farmers Market stock news this week

Coverage of Sprouts Farmers Market this week reads negative: 1 positive, 2 neutral and 4 negative headlines.

News sentiment negative

Sprouts Farmers Market peers

Sprouts Farmers Market’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
KRKroger+1.1%Neutral11.5% below
TBBBBBB Foods+0.5%Distribution25.7% above
ACIAlbertsons Companies+0.1%Accumulation38.1% below
WMKWeis Markets+1.1%Neutral45.0% above
IMKTAIngles Markets+1.8%Neutral15.3% below
GOGrocery Outlet+0.3%Accumulation3.0% above

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Sprouts Farmers Market stock FAQ

What is Sprouts Farmers Market’s market cap?

Sprouts Farmers Market’s market cap is $5.92B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $63.45, with 93.25M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 12.6.

What is the Sprouts Farmers Market stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Sprouts Farmers Market is $95.00, +49.7% from the last close. Of the 13 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 8 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Sprouts Farmers Market stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Sprouts Farmers Market is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $63.45 is 23.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $82.56. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Sprouts Farmers Market report earnings next?

Sprouts Farmers Market is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (36 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.24 per share on revenue of $2.34B. Sprouts Farmers Market beat the earnings estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 10.6% on average across the report.

What is Sprouts Farmers Market’s 52-week high and low?

Sprouts Farmers Market’s 52-week high is $114.34 and its 52-week low is $61.88; it closed at $63.45 on Sep 28, 2026, −43.0% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $182.00 on Jun 3, 2025.

Is Sprouts Farmers Market stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 5 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality) and 1 as a headwind (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

See Sprouts Farmers Market the way Gekko members do

Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.

Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko

Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.