Insider buying last 90 days
No open-market insider purchases were filed for GEO in the last 90 days.
From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.
Every GEO insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GEO in Gekko
Gekko Brief
AI summaryGEO shares slipped this week, with one report noting a 4.8% decline to $30.25 alongside a view that the stock remains overvalued despite an "Above Average" score of 60 out of 100. A separate comparison piece weighed GEO against Safe and Green Development (RENX) on measures such as analyst recommendations, profitability, valuation, risk, earnings and institutional ownership, without a stated conclusion. The commentary also flagged $1.1 million in insider sales over the past year as part of a broader growth concern.
GEO closed at $30.22, down 3.2% on the day, with a one-month return of -7.3% but six-month and one-year returns of 80.8% and 44.5% respectively. The close sits below the 50-day average of $31.23 and above the 200-day average of $22.71. The GekkoIndex reads 63.1, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone, and price sits 1.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $29.65.
The next earnings date falls on 5 November 2026, 37 days out and beyond a typical 20-trading-day hold; the prior report on 6 August showed EPS of $0.37 against a $0.29 estimate, with a -2.3% reaction. Options activity over the past 30 days shows 1 unusual signal, with call premium of $1,824,384 against put premium of $201,682. Seasonality data over 5 years shows an average 20-day return of 3.6%, positive in 4 of those years. Consensus among 3 analysts stands at Buy, with a target of $37.75 implying 24.9% upside.
Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.
GEO price vs fair value
Close $30.22200-day averageGekko Fair Value $29.65
GEO quick facts
- Market cap
- $4.04B
- P/E ratio
- 14.7
- Forward P/E
- 19
- EPS, TTM
- $2.12
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.83B
- Profit margin
- 10.3%
- Dividend yield
- —
- Beta
- 0.78
- Volume
- 2.52M avg 1.97M
- 1-year return
- +44.5%
- Typical daily move
- ±4.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.7%
- 50-day average
- $31.23
- 200-day average
- $22.71
- Next earnings
- Nov 5
- Shares outstanding
- 131.6M
GEO swing-trade checklist
GEO scores 4 supportive, 2 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 6 checklist items with data.
Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.
4 supportive2 mixed0 headwinds
- Trendmixed
Averages disagree
Close $30.22 sits between the 50-day ($31.23) and 200-day ($22.71) averages, or the averages disagree.
See the chart - GekkoIndexsupportive
63.1, Accumulation
Reading 63.1 is in the Accumulation zone.
See the GekkoIndex - Fair valuemixed
1.9% above
Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (1.9% above).
See fair value - Smart moneysupportive
Leans bullish
Last 30 days: 1 unusual options signal.
See smart money - Earnings risksupportive
Reports in 37 days
Next report Nov 5, 2026, 37 days away — outside a typical 20-trading-day hold.
See earnings - Seasonalitysupportive
+3.6% on average
From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +3.6% over 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
See seasonality
A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works
GEO stock chart and price history
GEO closed at $30.22 on Sep 28, 2026, +44.5% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $12.51 to $33.15.
Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.
Performance Breakdown
- 1 month
- −7.3%
- 3 months
- +2.6%
- 6 months
- +80.8%
- 1 year
- +44.5%
The full GEO chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open GEO in Gekko
Follow GEO through every session
Put GEO on a Gekko watchlist and see its GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and smart money signals update on the chart as they change.
Track GEO in GekkoFree for 7 days. No credit card required.
About GEO
GEO runs and leases secure correctional centers, processing facilities, and community reentry sites across the United States, Australia, and South Africa. It is known for managing the full range of services tied to these facilities, including security operations, counseling, education, substance dependency treatment, and food service, alongside electronic monitoring and supervision programs for people on parole, probation, or awaiting trial.
The company organizes its work into four segments covering domestic secure facilities, electronic monitoring and supervision, reentry programs, and international operations. Its reentry work includes temporary housing, structured programming, and job placement support, while its GEO Continuum of Care platform provides cognitive behavioral therapy, post-release assistance, and vocational training. It also monitors non-detained foreign nationals involved in immigration proceedings, arranges secure transportation, and takes on the design, construction, and financing of new facilities under contract.
Founded in 1984, GEO is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker GEO.
- Listed
- NYSE
- Sector
- Commercial services
- Website
- geogroup.com
GEO GekkoIndex: the smart money zone
GEO’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 63.1, in the Accumulation zone, up 0.8 points over five sessions.
63.1Accumulation
Up 0.8 points over five sessions.
Reading for Sep 28, 2026
What followed past readings in each zone
| Zone | Readings | 5 days | 20 days |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buying | 86 | 0.0% | +2.6% |
| Accumulation (current zone) | 144 | +0.6% | +0.5% |
| Neutral | 231 | +1.2% | +3.8% |
| Distribution | 66 | +1.9% | +16.1% |
| Selling | 16 | +2.6% | +18.9% |
Average GEO share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.3% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.
Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →
See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the GEO price, zone by zone.Track GEO in Gekko
Is GEO stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value
GEO trades 1.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $29.65, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.
Gekko’s own estimate of what GEO shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.
$29.65
Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026
1.9% above fair value · About fair value
Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open GEO in Gekko
GEO insider and Congress trading
No open-market insider purchases were filed for GEO, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.
Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.
Congress trades last 90 days
No trades in GEO were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.
From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.
Congress disclosures for GEO, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GEO in Gekko
Buybacks
GEO has been buying back its own shares.
- Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
- $86.73M
- As a share of market cap
- 2.15%
- Trailing four quarters
- $227.9M
From company filings.
Unusual options activity last 30 days
1signal, 90% of the flagged premium in calls.
Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 29, $2.03M in unusual premium.
Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Mar 31
0of the funds Gekko tracks hold GEO.
0added0opened0trimmed1sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko
GEO earnings: next date and track record
GEO reports on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports.
Next earnings report
Nov 5, 2026
37 days away
- EPS estimate
- $0.35
- Revenue estimate
- $772.7M
4 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±11.5%average move across the report
3 of 8reports followed by a gain
Share-price move across each report
Last earnings call, Aug 6, 2026 AI summary
- What they said
- GEO Group reported Q2 2026 revenues up 15% year-over-year with net income surging 63%. The company secured $520M in new annual contract revenues in 2025, its largest single-year haul. ICE population across GEO facilities reached ~24,000 beds, with 20% census growth in the past six weeks. Two new ICE processing center contracts (Bighorn, CO and Rivers, NC) add ~2,510 beds and ~$165M in combined annual revenues.
- Guidance
- Bighorn and Rivers facilities expected operational by end of 2026, reaching normalized earnings in early 2027. Total ICE beds under contract will reach ~29,500 post-activation. GEO has 4,500 additional idle beds available and continues discussions with the federal government for potential further reactivation.
| Reported | EPS | Revenue | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 6, 2026 | $0.37 est $0.29 | $732.1M est $721.4M | −2.3% |
| May 6, 2026 | $0.29 est $0.19 | $705.2M est $688.9M | +15.6% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | $0.25 est $0.25 | $707.7M est $667.3M | −10.2% |
| Nov 6, 2025 | $0.25 est $0.22 | $682.3M est $667.2M | −10.0% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $0.22 est $0.16 | $636.2M est $650.3M | −16.8% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.14 est $0.18 | $604.6M est $635.6M | −13.4% |
| Feb 27, 2025 | $0.13 est $0.21 | $607.7M est $606.5M | +6.1% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.21 est $0.24 | $603.1M est $608.4M | +18.0% |
“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.
GEO stock forecast and analyst price targets
Analysts’ average 12-month price target for GEO is $37.75, +24.9% from the last close, from 3 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.
$37.75consensus 12-month target, +24.9% from the last close
Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 3 firms.
Latest analyst actions
| Date | Firm | Target | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10 | Noble Financial | $40 | +32.4% |
| Aug 7 | Northland Securities | $40 | +32.4% |
| Aug 6 | JonesTrading | $40 | +32.4% |
| Jul 30 | Noble Financial | $35 | +15.8% |
| Jul 16 | Noble Financial | $35 | +15.8% |
+0.5%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+3.6%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±4.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range
Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.
GEO seasonality: the next 20 trading days
Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, GEO averaged +3.6% across the last 5 years, rising in 4 of them.
Next 20 trading days, by year
Average move and hit rate
| Window | Average | Years higher |
|---|---|---|
| Next 5 trading days | +3.4% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 10 trading days | +3.7% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 15 trading days | +5.2% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 20 trading days | +3.6% | 4 of 5 |
| Next 30 trading days | +23.8% | 4 of 5 |
For scale, GEO’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.7%.
GEO market cap and key statistics
GEO’s market cap is $4.04B, with a P/E ratio of 14.7 and revenue of $2.83B over the last twelve months.
Valuation
- Market cap
- $4.04B
- P/E ratio
- 14.7
- Forward P/E
- 19
- EPS, TTM
- $2.12
- Gekko Fair Value
- $29.65
Trading
- Volume
- 2.52M
- Avg volume, 20 days
- 1.97M
- 52-week high
- $33.15
- 52-week low
- $12.51
- Shares outstanding
- 131.6M
Financials
- Revenue, TTM
- $2.83B
- Profit margin
- 10.3%
- Return on equity
- 20.1%
- Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
- +71.4%
Risk and income
- Beta
- 0.78
- Typical daily move
- ±4.5%
- Typical 20-day move
- ±8.7%
GEO stock news this week
2 headlines about GEO from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.
GEO stock FAQ
What is GEO’s market cap?
GEO’s market cap is $4.04B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.22, with 131.6M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 14.7.
What is the GEO stock forecast?
The consensus analyst 12-month price target for GEO is $37.75, +24.9% from the last close. Of the 3 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 3 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.
Is GEO stock overvalued or undervalued?
On Gekko’s estimate GEO is about fair value: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $30.22 is 1.9% above Gekko Fair Value of $29.65. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.
When does GEO report earnings next?
GEO is expected to report on Nov 5, 2026 (37 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.35 per share on revenue of $772.7M. GEO beat the earnings estimate in 4 of its last 8 reports, moving 11.5% on average across the report.
What is GEO’s 52-week high and low?
GEO’s 52-week high is $33.15 and its 52-week low is $12.51; it closed at $30.22 on Sep 28, 2026, +44.5% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $36.46 on Jan 21, 2025.
Is GEO stock a buy right now?
Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, smart money, earnings risk and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and fair value). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.
Is there unusual options activity in GEO?
Gekko flagged 1 unusual options signal in GEO over the last 30 days, with $1.82M of flagged premium in calls and $202K in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 29, 2026 with $2.03M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.
How this page works
During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →
See GEO the way Gekko members do
Every GekkoIndex reading, insider trade, options bet and Congress disclosure plotted on the chart, plus the 5,800-name screener and trade planning tools.
Join 1,380 other traders using Gekko
Start Your FREE 7 Day Trial → Every feature unlocked. No credit card required.