NASDAQ: FSLY

Fastly (FSLY) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$26.43−2.87 (−9.8%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

Fastly shares fell 9.8% on 12 October, giving back part of a sharp run driven by Oppenheimer's upgrade to Outperform with a $35 price target, announced 9 October after shares had surged nearly 15% to $29.04 on rising contract values and demand for the company's AI and security tools. Coverage this week also frames Fastly within the broader shift toward agentic AI and compares its business against peer VNET Group, underscoring continued attention on its edge network and security positioning following that analyst action.

At $26.43, Fastly trades above both its 50-day average of $24.93 and 200-day average of $20.44, with the 50-day above the 200-day, a trend picture the checklist calls supportive. The GekkoIndex reads 54.6, placing the stock in the Neutral zone, down 1.7 over five days. Price sits 3.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $25.49, keeping the stock within 5% of that level.

Fastly next reports earnings on 4 November, 23 days away, falling inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; its last report on 5 August beat estimates ($0.15 versus $0.07) but still drew a -9.1% reaction, and average absolute moves around earnings have run 29.8%. Over the last 30 days, 2 unusual options signals were recorded, with call premium of $9,757,204 against put premium of $1,111,391. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged +18.1% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them. Consensus among 12 firms stands at 6 buy, 5 hold, 1 sell, with a target of $27.90.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Fastly price vs fair value

$26.43$25.49Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $26.43200-day averageGekko Fair Value $25.49

Fastly quick facts

Market cap
$4.14B
P/E ratio
—
Forward P/E
47.4
EPS, TTM
−$0.53
Revenue, TTM
$687.2M
Profit margin
-11.8%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
0.31
Volume
6.93M avg 8.13M
1-year return
+209.1%
Typical daily move
±9.2%
Typical 20-day move
±13.9%
50-day average
$24.93
200-day average
$20.44
Next earnings
Nov 4 after close
Shares outstanding
159.3M
52-week range
$7.74$34.82

Fastly swing-trade checklist

Fastly scores 3 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 6 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendsupportive

    Above 50 and 200-day

    Close $26.43 is above the 50-day ($24.93) and 200-day ($20.44) averages, and the 50-day is above the 200-day.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    54.6, Neutral

    Reading 54.6 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuemixed

    3.7% above

    Price is within 5% of Gekko Fair Value (3.7% above).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +18.1% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +18.1% over 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Fastly stock chart and price history

Fastly closed at $26.43 on Oct 12, 2026, +209.1% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $7.74 to $34.82.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Fastly share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$10$15$20$30$35NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct26.43

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+14.1%
3 months
+26.5%
6 months
+8.5%
1 year
+209.1%
The full FSLY chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open FSLY in Gekko

Follow Fastly through every session

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About Fastly

Fastly builds a platform that sits at the edge of the internet, giving businesses a way to run, shield, and push out their applications and content to users around the world, spanning regions such as North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific. It has become known as a resource for developers who want to construct and secure fast-loading digital experiences without relying solely on centralized servers.

Its platform covers a mix of capabilities, from a serverless computing option called Compute@Edge to tools that speed up website delivery, support live and recorded video streaming, and guard against threats like denial-of-service attacks, bot abuse, and application-layer exploits. Clients drawing on these services come from fields such as publishing, entertainment and media, e-commerce, financial services, travel, and broader technology work.

The business began under a different name, SkyCache, Inc., when it was formed in 2011, before switching to the Fastly name the following year in May. It runs its operations out of San Francisco, California, and trades on the NASDAQ exchange under the symbol FSLY.

Listed
NASDAQ
Sector
Technology services
Industry
Information technology services
Website
fastly.com

Fastly GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Fastly’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 54.6, in the Neutral zone, down 1.7 points over five sessions.

010054.6Neutral

Down 1.7 points over five sessions.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying62+1.2%−0.2%+6.3%+10.1%
Accumulation225+1.8%+5.4%+9.0%+22.8%
Neutral (current zone)334+1.0%+0.8%+1.4%+8.9%
Distribution42−0.9%−3.9%−1.2%−6.4%
Selling19+1.8%+9.6%−2.4%−13.4%

Average FSLY share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the FSLY price, zone by zone.Track FSLY in Gekko

Is Fastly stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Fastly trades 3.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $25.49, so the shares are about fair value on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Fastly shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$25.49

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

3.7% above fair value · About fair value

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 17.2% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$25$29Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open FSLY in Gekko

Fastly insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Fastly, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for FSLY in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every FSLY insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FSLY in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in FSLY were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for FSLY, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open FSLY in Gekko

Buybacks

Fastly has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2022
$3.62M
As a share of market cap
0.09%

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 90% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Sep 25, $1.78M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

0of the funds Gekko tracks hold FSLY.

0added0opened0trimmed3sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Fastly earnings: next date and track record

Fastly reports on Nov 4, 2026, after the close (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports.

7 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±29.8%average move across the report
5 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+6.5%Nov ’24−20.8%Feb ’25+30.7%May ’25+16.9%Aug ’25+37.8%Nov ’25+76.5%Feb ’26−39.7%May ’26−9.1%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 5, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Fastly reported record Q2 revenue of $183M, up 23% YoY, exceeding guidance. Gross margin hit a record 65.8% and operating income reached $27M with a 14.7% operating margin, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of operating profit. Net retention rate rose to 117%, highest in three years. Security segment grew 43% YoY with DDoS protection and bot management growing at triple-digit rates.
Guidance
Management raised forward-looking optimism based on platform adoption trends and AI-driven traffic tailwinds. An Investor Day is scheduled for September 22nd, suggesting upcoming formal guidance updates. No specific revenue or EPS targets were disclosed in this excerpt.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 5, 2026$0.15
est $0.07
+127.5%$183.3M
est $173.9M
+5.4%−9.1%
May 6, 2026$0.13
est $0.08
+62.5%$173.0M
est $171.8M
+0.7%−39.7%
Feb 11, 2026$0.12
est $0.06
+100.0%$172.6M
est $161.4M
+7.0%+76.5%
Nov 5, 2025$0.07
est $0.06
+22.0%$158.2M
est $161.4M
−1.9%+37.8%
Aug 6, 2025−$0.03
est −$0.05
+40.0%$148.7M
est $144.9M
+2.7%+16.9%
May 7, 2025−$0.05
est −$0.06
+16.7%$144.5M
est $138.4M
+4.4%+30.7%
Feb 12, 2025−$0.03
est $0.01
−400.0%$140.6M
est $138.6M
+1.4%−20.8%
Nov 6, 2024$0.02
est −$0.06
+133.3%$137.2M
est $138.0M
−0.6%+6.5%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Fastly stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Fastly is $27.90, +5.6% from the last close, from 12 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$27.90consensus 12-month target, +5.6% from the last close
Low $22High $37
Buy6
Hold5
Sell1

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 12 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 9OppenheimerBuy, upgraded$35+32.4%
Sep 25CitiHold, maintained——
Sep 23Bank of America SecuritiesSell, reiterated$22−16.8%
Sep 23Freedom Capital MarketsBuy, maintained$37+40.0%
Sep 23Evercore ISIBuy, maintained$32+21.1%
+1.4%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+18.1%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±9.2%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Fastly seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Fastly averaged +18.1% across the last 5 years, rising in 5 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+26.6%2021+8.2%2022+4.9%2023+12.8%2024+40.5%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−0.6%2 of 5
Next 10 trading days+2.1%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+3.6%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+18.1%5 of 5
Next 30 trading days+5.9%3 of 5

For scale, FSLY’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 13.9%.

Fastly market cap and key statistics

Fastly’s market cap is $4.14B and revenue of $687.2M over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$4.14B
Forward P/E
47.4
EPS, TTM
−$0.53
Gekko Fair Value
$25.49

Trading

Volume
6.93M
Avg volume, 20 days
8.13M
52-week high
$34.82
52-week low
$7.74
Shares outstanding
159.3M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$687.2M
Profit margin
-11.8%
Return on equity
-8.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
0.0%

Risk and income

Beta
0.31
Typical daily move
±9.2%
Typical 20-day move
±13.9%

Fastly stock news this week

6 headlines about Fastly from the past week, newest first, each linking to the publisher.

Fastly peers

Fastly’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
IBMInternational Business Machines−0.6%Neutral12.9% below
FTNTFortinet−1.9%Neutral40.5% above
ACNAccenture+1.9%Neutral2.9% below
NETCloudflare−3.1%Neutral17.9% above
WDAYWorkday−0.6%Neutral11.7% above
CRDOCredo Technology−5.4%Neutral15.5% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Fastly stock FAQ

What is Fastly’s market cap?

Fastly’s market cap is $4.14B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $26.43, with 159.3M shares outstanding.

What is the Fastly stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Fastly is $27.90, +5.6% from the last close. Of the 12 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 6 rate it a buy, 5 a hold and 1 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Fastly stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Fastly is about fair value: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $26.43 is 3.7% above Gekko Fair Value of $25.49. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Fastly report earnings next?

Fastly is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026, after the market closes (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $187.8M. Fastly beat the earnings estimate in 7 of its last 8 reports, moving 29.8% on average across the report.

What is Fastly’s 52-week high and low?

Fastly’s 52-week high is $34.82 and its 52-week low is $7.74; it closed at $26.43 on Oct 12, 2026, +209.1% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $58.62 on Nov 4, 2021.

Is Fastly stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 6 items with data read as supportive (trend, smart money and seasonality), 2 as mixed (gekkoindex and fair value) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Fastly?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Fastly over the last 30 days, with $9.76M of flagged premium in calls and $1.11M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Sep 25, 2026 with $1.78M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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