NYSE: NGVT

Ingevity (NGVT) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Oct 12 close

$69.07−0.69 (−1.0%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryOct 12 close

This week's attention on Ingevity centers on analyst coverage and a scheduled earnings date. A consensus target price of $80.00 is cited, with five analysts covering the stock under a "Hold" rating, three holds and two buys. Separately, the company confirmed it will release third-quarter 2026 earnings after market close on 4 November, with a webcast the following morning. Commentary this week also pointed to strategic capital allocation and business transformation as supportive themes, while flagging challenges in the APT business and broader macroeconomic risks.

Shares closed at $69.07, down 1%, sitting between the 50-day average of $71.50 and the 200-day average of $70.60, reflecting a mixed trend. The GekkoIndex reads 60.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price sits 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $78.55.

Over the next 20 trading days, the next earnings date falls on 4 November, 23 days away, inside that typical holding window. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the current window. Seasonality data shows the next 20 trading days have averaged a 10.2% return over the past 5 years, with gains in 3 of them. The current consensus target of $89 implies a 28.9% upside from current levels, according to analyst estimates.

Written by AI from the Oct 12, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Ingevity price vs fair value

$78.55$69.07Oct ’25Apr ’26Oct ’26
Close $69.07200-day averageGekko Fair Value $78.55

Ingevity quick facts

Market cap
$2.37B
P/E ratio
102
Forward P/E
10
EPS, TTM
$0.70
Revenue, TTM
$1.16B
Profit margin
4.7%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
1.14
Volume
280,473 avg 269,666
1-year return
+27.9%
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±8.5%
50-day average
$71.50
200-day average
$70.60
Next earnings
Nov 4
Shares outstanding
34.38M
52-week range
$45.85$79.29

Ingevity swing-trade checklist

Ingevity scores 3 supportive, 1 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

3 supportive1 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $69.07 sits between the 50-day ($71.50) and 200-day ($70.60) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    60.9, Accumulation

    Reading 60.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    12.1% below

    Price is 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 23 days

    Reports on Nov 4, 2026, 23 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +10.2% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +10.2% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Ingevity stock chart and price history

Ingevity closed at $69.07 on Oct 12, 2026, +27.9% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $45.85 to $79.29.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Ingevity share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$50$60NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct69.07

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−0.5%
3 months
−5.3%
6 months
−9.1%
1 year
+27.9%
The full NGVT chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open NGVT in Gekko

Follow Ingevity through every session

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About Ingevity

Ingevity makes and sells specialty chemical products and activated carbon, with operations spanning North America, Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and South America. It is particularly known for its activated carbon, derived mainly from hardwood, which is used in gasoline vapor emission control systems for cars, motorcycles, trucks, and boats, and also serves purification needs in food, water, beverage, and industrial chemical applications.

The company runs two main divisions. Performance Materials handles the engineering, manufacturing, and sale of the activated carbon products described above. Performance Chemicals works with crude tall oil, lignin, caprolactone monomers, and related derivatives to supply materials for paving and pavement maintenance, oil well and production additives, and inputs used in adhesives, agricultural dispersants, lubricants, printing inks, coatings, resins, elastomers, bioplastics, and medical devices.

Ingevity was founded in 1964 and is headquartered in North Charleston, South Carolina. Its shares are listed on the NYSE under the ticker NGVT.

Listed
NYSE
Sector
Process industries
Industry
Chemicals: major diversified
Website
ingevity.com

Ingevity GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Ingevity’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 60.9, in the Accumulation zone, up 8.3 points over five sessions.

010060.9Accumulation

Up 8.3 points over five sessions, from the Neutral zone.

Reading for Oct 12, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying31+5.5%+6.7%+10.4%+12.9%
Accumulation (current zone)203+1.2%+3.7%+7.3%+8.7%
Neutral4010.0%−0.5%−0.8%+3.0%
Distribution40+0.8%+1.7%+1.9%+4.3%
Selling7Too few readings yet

Average NGVT share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.2% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the NGVT price, zone by zone.Track NGVT in Gekko

Is Ingevity stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Ingevity trades 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $78.55, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Ingevity shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$78.55

Gekko Fair Value, Oct 10, 2026

12.1% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 17.1% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$79$70Aug 2026SepOct 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open NGVT in Gekko

Ingevity insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Ingevity, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for NGVT in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every NGVT insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NGVT in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in NGVT were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for NGVT, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open NGVT in Gekko

Buybacks

Ingevity has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Jun 30, 2026
$34.50M
As a share of market cap
1.45%
Trailing four quarters
$143.1M

From company filings.

Ingevity earnings: next date and track record

Ingevity reports on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports.

5 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±6.8%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.2%May ’24−7.5%Jul ’24+16.5%Oct ’24+2.0%Feb ’25+1.4%Apr ’25−7.2%Jul ’25−12.1%Nov ’25−0.8%Feb ’26

Last earnings call, Feb 25, 2026 AI summary

What they said
Ingevity's Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings call emphasized a successful year of portfolio simplification, improved profitability, strong cash generation and disciplined capital allocation. Management highlighted nearly 10% growth in adjusted EBITDA, industry-leading adjusted EBITDA margins above 30%, $274 million of free cash flow, reduced leverage to 2.6x, and share repurchases exceeding 1 million shares. They completed the sale of the North Charleston CTO refinery and most of the Industrial Specialties product line, and initiated sales processes for Advanced Polymer Technologies (APT) and Road Markings. Management stressed resilient Performance Materials (high-margin activated carbon business), strategic repositioning of Performance Chemicals, and ongoing cost and productivity actions in APT. They acknowledged GAAP results included significant pretax special charges (goodwill and asset impairments) but focused on stronger non-GAAP results. Guidance for 2026 was provided with cautious assumptions about a stable macro/auto backdrop and no meaningful recovery in the global economy; management expects continued buybacks, targeted leverage reduction, and further portfolio actions.
Guidance
2026 adjusted EPS: $4.08 to $5.20; Sales: $1.1 billion to $1.2 billion; Adjusted EBITDA: $380 million to $400 million; Performance Materials sales: low single-digit growth with margins consistent with 2025; Performance Chemicals (including Road Markings) sales: mid-single-digit growth with EBITDA margins in the mid-teens; APT: flat to low single-digit growth with margins around 20%; CapEx: $40 million to $60 million; Free cash flow: $225 million to $250 million (excludes ~ $95 million pretax BASF litigation payment in Q2); Share buybacks: continue toward $300 million through 2027; Net leverage target: 2.0x to 2.5x in 2026.
Risks flagged
Tariff uncertainty and supply chain disruptions impacting automotive production; competitive pressures and weak demand in Advanced Polymer Technologies; seasonality (Performance Chemicals/Pavement heavily weighted to Q2 and Q3); litigation-related cash outflow (~$95M pretax to BASF in Q2 2026); recent goodwill and asset impairments indicating legacy underperformance in APT and Road Markings; macroeconomic weakness (company does not expect a meaningful recovery in 2026); potential transaction execution risk for APT and Road Markings sales.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Feb 25, 2026$0.58
est $0.67
−12.8%$255.1M
est $257.3M
−0.8%−0.8%
Nov 5, 2025$1.31
est $0.68
+92.6%$333.1M
est $257.3M
+29.5%−12.1%
Jul 29, 2025$1.39
est $1.17
+18.8%$365.1M
est $372.0M
−1.9%−7.2%
Apr 29, 2025$0.56
est $0.73
−23.9%$284.0M
est $285.5M
−0.5%+1.4%
Feb 19, 2025$0.95
est $0.31
+208.9%$298.8M
est $328.2M
−9.0%+2.0%
Oct 29, 2024$1.10
est $0.90
+22.2%$376.9M
est $310.8M
+21.3%+16.5%
Jul 31, 2024$1.01
est $1.05
−3.8%$390.6M
est $407.6M
−4.2%−7.5%
May 1, 2024$0.52
est $0.32
+62.5%$340.1M
est $318.9M
+6.7%+7.2%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Ingevity stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Ingevity is $89.00, +28.9% from the last close, from 1 firm rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$89.00consensus 12-month target, +28.9% from the last close
Buy1
Hold0
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 1 firm.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Oct 5BMO CapitalBuy, reiterated$85+23.1%
+7.3%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+10.2%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±2.9%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Ingevity seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Oct 10, Ingevity averaged +10.2% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+8.4%2021+18.4%2022−6.2%2023+36.8%2024−8.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+3.0%5 of 5
Next 10 trading days+0.9%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+6.6%4 of 5
Next 20 trading days+10.2%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+10.4%3 of 5

For scale, NGVT’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 8.5%.

Ingevity market cap and key statistics

Ingevity’s market cap is $2.37B, with a P/E ratio of 102 and revenue of $1.16B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$2.37B
P/E ratio
102
Forward P/E
10
EPS, TTM
$0.70
Gekko Fair Value
$78.55

Trading

Volume
280,473
Avg volume, 20 days
269,666
52-week high
$79.29
52-week low
$45.85
Shares outstanding
34.38M

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$1.16B
Profit margin
4.7%
Return on equity
30.1%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+199.0%

Risk and income

Beta
1.14
Typical daily move
±2.9%
Typical 20-day move
±8.5%

Ingevity stock news this week

Coverage of Ingevity this week reads positive: 2 positive, 1 neutral and 0 negative headlines.

News sentiment positive

Ingevity peers

Ingevity’s 6 largest industry peers by market value, with today’s move, GekkoIndex zone and gap to Gekko Fair Value.

StockTodayGekkoIndex zonevs Fair Value
DDDuPont de Nemours−0.2%Accumulation5.8% above
SOLSSolstice Advanced Materials−0.8%Neutral44.8% below
ESIElement Solutions+1.5%Neutral10.1% above
PRMPerimeter Solutions−1.5%Accumulation24.0% below
AVNTAvient+3.1%Buying36.4% below
IOSPInnospec0.0%Neutral1.0% below

A peer links to its own page where one exists.

In the Buying zone today

Reporting earnings this week

Popular on Gekko

Ingevity stock FAQ

What is Ingevity’s market cap?

Ingevity’s market cap is $2.37B at the Oct 12, 2026 close of $69.07, with 34.38M shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 102.

What is the Ingevity stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Ingevity is $89.00, +28.9% from the last close. Of the 1 firm that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 1 rate it a buy, 0 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Ingevity stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Ingevity is undervalued: the Oct 12, 2026 close of $69.07 is 12.1% below Gekko Fair Value of $78.55. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Ingevity report earnings next?

Ingevity is expected to report on Nov 4, 2026 (23 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $1.56 per share on revenue of $303.9M. Ingevity beat the earnings estimate in 5 of its last 8 reports, moving 6.8% on average across the report.

What is Ingevity’s 52-week high and low?

Ingevity’s 52-week high is $79.29 and its 52-week low is $45.85; it closed at $69.07 on Oct 12, 2026, +27.9% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $90.81 on Feb 17, 2023.

Is Ingevity stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 3 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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