Gerdau (GGB) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Sep 28 close

$4.78−0.07 (−1.4%)

Gekko Brief

AI summary

Gerdau this week draws attention on multiple fronts: strong fundamentals commentary highlighting a Piotroski Score of 8, a UBS price target of $6.10 implying 26% upside, and a broader consensus "Hold" rating from nine brokerages with an average 12-month target of $5.575. A separate downgrade cites stronger margins and lower capex but less asymmetry going forward, following a nearly 70% one-year total return tied to North American steel margin recovery and AI infrastructure demand. Insider sales by Chairman Claudio Johannpeter and Executive Vice President Rafael Gamboa Lopes were also disclosed during the period.

The stock closed at $4.78, down 1.4%, sitting between its 50-day average of $4.83 and 200-day average of $4.33. The GekkoIndex reads 59.3, placing it in the Neutral zone, up 3.8 over five days. Price remains 36.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.53. One-year return stands at 56.2%, with the 52-week range spanning $3.06 to $5.18.

Gerdau's next earnings date falls on 26 October 2026, 27 days out and inside a typical 20-trading-day holding window; the prior report on 4 August showed EPS of $0.15 matching estimates, with an average absolute reaction of 4.6% across past quarters. No insider, Congress, or unusual options activity appears in the respective 90-day and 30-day windows. Seasonally, the next 20 trading days have averaged a 1.3% gain over five years, rising in 3 of those years. Analyst consensus reflects 2 buy and 3 hold ratings among 5 firms, with a consensus target of $5.63 and 17.8% upside.

Written by AI and checked automatically against the figures on this page. Generated Sep 29, 2026 from the data above.

Gerdau price vs fair value

▲$7.53$4.78Sep ’25Mar ’26Sep ’26
Close $4.78200-day averageGekko Fair Value $7.53

Gerdau quick facts

Market cap
$9.45B
P/E ratio
22.1
Forward P/E
6.2
EPS, TTM
$0.22
Revenue, TTM
$69.54B
Profit margin
3.2%
Dividend yield
3.72%
Beta
0.89
Volume
9.77M avg 10.95M
1-year return
+56.2%
Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±6.9%
50-day average
$4.83
200-day average
$4.33
Next earnings
Oct 26
Shares outstanding
1.24B
52-week range
$3.06$5.18

Gerdau swing-trade checklist

Gerdau scores 2 supportive, 2 mixed and 1 headwind across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

2 supportive2 mixed1 headwind

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $4.78 sits between the 50-day ($4.83) and 200-day ($4.33) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexmixed

    59.3, Neutral

    Reading 59.3 is in the Neutral zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    36.5% below

    Price is 36.5% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneyno data

    No data

    No insider, Congress or unusual options activity in the window.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskheadwind

    Reports in 27 days

    Reports on Oct 26, 2026, 27 days away — inside a typical 20-trading-day hold.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.3% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.3% over 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Gerdau stock chart and price history

Gerdau closed at $4.78 on Sep 28, 2026, +56.2% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $3.06 to $5.18.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Gerdau share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00NovDecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep4.78

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
+1.7%
3 months
+15.7%
6 months
+39.8%
1 year
+56.2%
The full GGB chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open GGB in Gekko

Follow Gerdau through every session

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About Gerdau

Gerdau produces steel and related products, supplying rebars, bars, wires, plates, coils, billets, blooms, wire rods and structural profiles used across construction, industrial and other heavy-duty applications. The company also makes special steel grades aimed at sectors such as agriculture, automotive, energy, mining and distribution, alongside its broader commercial steel output.

The business is structured around three regional units covering Brazil, North America and South America, through which it manufactures and sells its steel lines. Beyond production, Gerdau runs its own iron ore mines in Brazil, giving it a role in sourcing raw material for its operations. Its customers span the industries that rely on steel inputs, including builders, manufacturers, farmers, energy firms and mining operators.

Founded in 1901, Gerdau is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Its shares trade under the ticker GGB.

Sector
Non-energy minerals
Website
www2.gerdau.com

Gerdau GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Gerdau’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 59.3, in the Neutral zone, up 3.8 points over five sessions.

010059.3Neutral

Up 3.8 points over five sessions.

Reading for Sep 28, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying35+1.1%+4.7%+12.0%+18.7%
Accumulation156+1.0%+2.5%+4.6%+3.5%
Neutral (current zone)392+0.1%−0.2%−0.7%+2.9%
Distribution42+0.4%−0.3%+0.2%−8.8%
Selling0Not available

Average GGB share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Neutral readings averaged +1.1% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Neutral zone: No clear directional signal. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the GGB price, zone by zone.Track GGB in Gekko

Is Gerdau stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Gerdau trades 36.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.53, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Gerdau shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$7.53

Gekko Fair Value, Sep 29, 2026

36.5% Undervalued

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open GGB in Gekko

Gerdau insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Gerdau, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for GGB in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every GGB insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GGB in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in GGB were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for GGB, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open GGB in Gekko

Gerdau earnings: next date and track record

Gerdau reports on Oct 26, 2026 (27 days away), and beat the EPS estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports.

1 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±4.6%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+12.2%Nov ’24−6.2%Feb ’25+1.9%Apr ’25−5.0%Jul ’25−3.1%Oct ’25−2.4%Feb ’26+4.6%Apr ’26+1.6%Aug ’26

Last earnings call, Aug 4, 2026 AI summary

What they said
GGB reported consolidated adjusted EBITDA of BRL 3.4 billion in Q2 2026, its best since Q3 2023, with adjusted net income surging 45% quarter-on-quarter to BRL 1.5 billion. North America drove results with 7% volume growth year-over-year and 15% EBITDA growth quarter-on-quarter. Brazil showed modest improvement despite continued import pressure. The company declared dividends of BRL 0.23 per share and its buyback program is 31% complete, while maintaining low leverage at 0.69x debt/EBITDA.
Guidance
Miguel Burnier mining expansion expects to start operations in Q3 2026, targeting BRL 1 billion to BRL 1.1 billion in annual benefits at full ramp-up. North America demand remains strong, backed by renewable energy and data center segments. Brazil faces headwinds from steel imports, with antidumping investigation outcomes expected in H2 2026.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Aug 4, 2026$0.15
est $0.15
0.0%$3.49B
est $3.41B
+2.2%+1.6%
Apr 27, 2026$0.51
est $0.76
−32.9%$3.34B
est $3.36B
−0.6%+4.6%
Feb 23, 2026$0.34
est $0.45
−24.4%$3.29B
est $3.15B
+4.5%−2.4%
Oct 30, 2025$0.10
est $0.12
−13.8%$3.37B
est $3.09B
+9.1%−3.1%
Jul 31, 2025$0.08
est $0.09
−13.9%$3.23B
est $3.28B
−1.6%−5.0%
Apr 28, 2025$0.37
est $0.11
+237.9%$3.08B
est $2.91B
+5.7%+1.9%
Feb 19, 2025$0.31
est $0.34
−8.4%$2.89B
est $2.86B
+1.1%−6.2%
Nov 5, 2024$0.12
est $0.13
−7.7%$3.18B
est $2.85B
+11.5%+12.2%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Gerdau stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Gerdau is $5.63, +17.8% from the last close, from 5 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$5.63consensus 12-month target, +17.8% from the last close
Low $5.10High $6.50
Buy2
Hold3
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 5 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Sep 8J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$6.50+36.0%
Sep 8J.P. MorganBuy, reiterated$6.50+36.0%
Sep 4J.P. MorganBuy, maintained$6.50+36.0%
Aug 27UBSBuy, reiterated$6.10+27.6%
Aug 27UBSBuy, maintained$6.10+27.6%
−0.7%average 20-day move after past Neutral readings
+1.3%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 5 years
±3.5%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Gerdau seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Sep 29, Gerdau averaged +1.3% across the last 5 years, rising in 3 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+2.4%2021+14.1%2022−8.6%2023−9.1%2024+9.0%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days+2.0%4 of 5
Next 10 trading days+1.7%3 of 5
Next 15 trading days+1.7%3 of 5
Next 20 trading days+1.3%3 of 5
Next 30 trading days+6.2%4 of 5

For scale, GGB’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 6.9%.

Gerdau market cap and key statistics

Gerdau’s market cap is $9.45B, with a P/E ratio of 22.1 and revenue of $69.54B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$9.45B
P/E ratio
22.1
Forward P/E
6.2
EPS, TTM
$0.22
Gekko Fair Value
$7.53

Trading

Volume
9.77M
Avg volume, 20 days
10.95M
52-week high
$5.18
52-week low
$3.06
Shares outstanding
1.24B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$69.54B
Profit margin
3.2%
Return on equity
4.2%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+73.5%

Risk and income

Beta
0.89
Typical daily move
±3.5%
Typical 20-day move
±6.9%
Dividend yield
3.72%

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Gerdau stock FAQ

What is Gerdau’s market cap?

Gerdau’s market cap is $9.45B at the Sep 28, 2026 close of $4.78, with 1.24B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 22.1.

What is the Gerdau stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Gerdau is $5.63, +17.8% from the last close. Of the 5 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 2 rate it a buy, 3 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Gerdau stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Gerdau is undervalued: the Sep 28, 2026 close of $4.78 is 36.5% below Gekko Fair Value of $7.53. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

When does Gerdau report earnings next?

Gerdau is expected to report on Oct 26, 2026 (27 days away). Analysts expect earnings of $0.17 per share on revenue of $3.61B. Gerdau beat the earnings estimate in 1 of its last 8 reports, moving 4.6% on average across the report.

What is Gerdau’s 52-week high and low?

Gerdau’s 52-week high is $5.18 and its 52-week low is $3.06; it closed at $4.78 on Sep 28, 2026, +56.2% over the past year. Over the last five years the shares peaked at $5.29 on Jan 18, 2023.

Is Gerdau stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 2 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (fair value and seasonality), 2 as mixed (trend and gekkoindex) and 1 as a headwind (earnings risk). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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