Arm (ARM) Stock Analysis & Forecast

Nov 4 close

$191.80−10.69 (−5.3%)

Gekko Brief

AI summaryNov 4 close

Arm shares slipped despite a second-quarter double beat, with sales climbing 27% on AI demand and data center royalties more than doubling year-over-year. The results followed a stretch in which the stock lost 29% over the prior month amid rising interest rates and doubts about the broader AI build-out, with pressure on CoreWeave spreading to related names including Arm. Coverage also noted ongoing concern about slowing royalty growth tied to smartphone weakness, even as the company points to cloud and data center AI demand as an offset.

Arm closes at $191.80, down 5.3%, sitting between its 50-day average of $256.08 and 200-day average of $230.29, with one-month and three-month returns of -36.6% and -33.1%. The GekkoIndex reads 69.9, placing the stock in the Accumulation zone. Price stands 22.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $246.84.

No confirmed date is on the calendar for the next earnings report; the last print, on 29 July 2026, showed EPS of $0.20 against an estimate of $0.18 with a -1.3% reaction, and the company has beaten estimates in 8 of its last 8 quarters. Over the last 30 days, 2 unusual options signals were recorded, with call premium of $19,826,445 against put premium of $2,193,648. Seasonality from this point has averaged a 20-day return of 1.5% over 3 years, rising in 2 of them. Analyst consensus among 8 firms stands at 7 buy and 1 hold, with a consensus target of $290.70.

Written by AI from the Nov 4, 2026 close and checked automatically against the figures on this page.

Arm price vs fair value

$246.84$191.80Nov ’25May ’26Nov ’26
Close $191.80200-day averageGekko Fair Value $246.84

Arm quick facts

Market cap
$204.1B
P/E ratio
211.6
Forward P/E
93.5
EPS, TTM
$0.93
Revenue, TTM
$5.16B
Profit margin
20.3%
Dividend yield
—
Beta
3.94
Volume
8.05M avg 5.16M
1-year return
+13.7%
Typical daily move
±7%
Typical 20-day move
±13.3%
50-day average
$256.08
200-day average
$230.29
Next earnings
—
Shares outstanding
1.07B
52-week range
$100.02$452.70

Arm swing-trade checklist

Arm scores 4 supportive, 1 mixed and 0 headwinds across the 5 checklist items with data.

Six things swing traders check before a 20-day hold, read from the latest data.

4 supportive1 mixed0 headwinds

  • Trendmixed

    Averages disagree

    Close $191.80 sits between the 50-day ($256.08) and 200-day ($230.29) averages, or the averages disagree.

    See the chart
  • GekkoIndexsupportive

    69.9, Accumulation

    Reading 69.9 is in the Accumulation zone.

    See the GekkoIndex
  • Fair valuesupportive

    22.3% below

    Price is 22.3% below Gekko Fair Value (more than 5% below).

    See fair value
  • Smart moneysupportive

    Leans bullish

    Last 30 days: 2 unusual options signals.

    See smart money
  • Earnings riskno data

    No data

    No confirmed report date on the calendar.

    See earnings
  • Seasonalitysupportive

    +1.5% on average

    From this point in the calendar, the next 20 trading days averaged +1.5% over 3 years, rising in 2 of them.

    See seasonality

A description of current data, not a recommendation. How this page works

Arm stock chart and price history

Arm closed at $191.80 on Nov 4, 2026, +13.7% over the past year, inside a 52-week range of $100.02 to $452.70.

Close50-day average200-day averageVolume
Arm share price, past year, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages and volume$100$300$400DecJan 2026FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOct191.80

Use the left and right arrow keys to read daily values.

Performance Breakdown

1 month
−36.6%
3 months
−33.1%
6 months
−19.2%
1 year
+13.7%
The full ARM chart adds GekkoIndex, insider, options, Congress and hedge fund markers, plus TrendCandles™.Open ARM in Gekko

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About Arm

Arm designs and licenses processor architectures and related technology rather than manufacturing chips itself. Its work includes microprocessor designs, system-level intellectual property, graphics processors, physical IP, software, and development tools that semiconductor makers and equipment manufacturers use to build their own products. This licensing model has made Arm's designs a common building block across automotive systems, computing hardware, consumer electronics, and connected devices.

Rather than selling finished chips, Arm earns from providing the underlying designs and tools that other companies incorporate into their own hardware. Its customers are chip producers and device makers who license these technologies to create products for sectors ranging from vehicles to everyday electronics and internet-connected equipment. Arm operates internationally, with activity extending into the United States, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and other markets, and it functions as a subsidiary of Kronos II LLC.

The company was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Cambridge, in the United Kingdom. Its shares trade under the ticker ARM.

Sector
Electronic technology
Website
arm.com

Arm GekkoIndex: the smart money zone

Arm’s GekkoIndex — Gekko’s 0 to 100 smart money score — reads 69.9, in the Accumulation zone, up 7.8 points over five sessions.

010069.9Accumulation

Up 7.8 points over five sessions.

Reading for Nov 4, 2026

What followed past readings in each zone

ZoneReadings5 days10 days20 days50 days
Buying51+4.5%+4.2%0.0%+21.3%
Accumulation (current zone)214−0.5%−0.1%+3.8%+18.1%
Neutral341+1.5%+2.8%+4.7%+9.1%
Distribution41+0.4%+2.2%+9.1%+11.7%
Selling3Too few readings yet

Average ARM share-price change over the trading days after each daily reading in its GekkoIndex history. Across every stock Gekko tracks, Accumulation readings averaged +2.0% over 20 days. Past behaviour doesn’t guarantee future results.

Accumulation zone: Institutional interest building. About the five zones →

See every daily GekkoIndex reading plotted over the ARM price, zone by zone.Track ARM in Gekko

Is Arm stock overvalued? Gekko Fair Value

Arm trades 22.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $246.84, so the shares are undervalued on Gekko’s estimate.

Gekko’s own estimate of what Arm shares are worth, recalculated every trading day.

$246.84

Gekko Fair Value, Nov 4, 2026

22.3% Undervalued

At the end of Aug 2026 the price was 15.3% below the estimate.

Gekko Fair ValueShare price, month end
$247$202Aug 2026SepOctNov 2026

How Gekko Fair Value works →

Gekko Fair Value on every chart, with the gap to price updating daily.Open ARM in Gekko

Arm insider and Congress trading

No open-market insider purchases were filed for Arm, and no Congress trades were disclosed, in the last 90 days.

Plus buybacks, unusual options and fund positions, each dated to when it became public.

Insider buying last 90 days

No open-market insider purchases were filed for ARM in the last 90 days.

From Form 4 filings, dated to when each was filed.

Every ARM insider filing, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARM in Gekko

Congress trades last 90 days

No trades in ARM were disclosed by members of Congress in the last 90 days.

From congressional disclosures, which report amounts as ranges.

Congress disclosures for ARM, plotted on the chart in Gekko.Open ARM in Gekko

Buybacks

Arm has been buying back its own shares.

Bought back, quarter ended Sep 30, 2025
$202.0M
As a share of market cap
0.10%

From company filings.

Unusual options activity last 30 days

2signals, 90% of the flagged premium in calls.

Latest: Bullish flow on Oct 22, $15.32M in unusual premium.

Hedge funds and billionaires quarter ended Jun 30

4of the funds Gekko tracks hold ARM.

0added2opened2trimmed2sold out
Every signal with its contract, strike and premium, and which funds are on each side.Unlock in Gekko

Arm earnings: next date and track record

Arm beat the EPS estimate in 8 of its last 8 reports, moving 5% on average across the report.

8 of 8reports beat the EPS estimate
±5%average move across the report
4 of 8reports followed by a gain

Share-price move across each report

+7.1%Nov ’24+3.2%Feb ’25−4.8%May ’25−13.5%Jul ’25−1.5%Nov ’25+6.1%Feb ’26+2.1%May ’26−1.3%Jul ’26

Last earnings call, Jul 29, 2026 AI summary

What they said
ARM delivered record Q1 FY2027 results with revenue of $1.29 billion, up 22% YoY. Royalty revenue grew 22% to $715 million while licensing revenue grew 23% to $574 million. Non-GAAP EPS rose 29% to $0.45, exceeding guidance. Data center royalties more than doubled YoY, with Neoverse shipments surpassing 1.5 billion cores. AGI CPU demand has grown to over $2 billion pipeline with multiple new customers secured.
Guidance
ARM's AGI CPU business targets a $1 billion opportunity across FY2027-FY2028, with management expressing increased confidence in achieving upside to that target. Demand now exceeds $2 billion as new customers are added and manufacturing capacity is being expanded.
ReportedEPSSurpriseRevenueSurpriseMove
Jul 29, 2026$0.20
est $0.18
+11.1%$1.29B
est $1.26B
+2.1%−1.3%
May 6, 2026$0.60
est $0.58
+3.4%$1.49B
est $1.47B
+1.1%+2.1%
Feb 4, 2026$0.43
est $0.41
+4.9%$1.24B
est $1.23B
+1.2%+6.1%
Nov 5, 2025$0.39
est $0.33
+18.6%$1.14B
est $1.06B
+7.0%−1.5%
Jul 30, 2025$0.35
est $0.35
+0.3%$1.05B
est $1.06B
−0.8%−13.5%
May 7, 2025$0.55
est $0.53
+4.8%$1.24B
est $1.06B
+16.9%−4.8%
Feb 5, 2025$0.40
est $0.34
+17.0%$983.0M
est $1.23B
−19.9%+3.2%
Nov 6, 2024$0.30
est $0.26
+15.4%$844.0M
est $808.4M
+4.4%+7.1%

“Move” is the close of the first session after the report compared with the close of the last session before it, so it reads the same whether the company reported before the open or after the close.

Arm stock forecast and analyst price targets

Analysts’ average 12-month price target for Arm is $290.70, +51.6% from the last close, from 8 firms rating the stock in the last 90 days.

$290.70consensus 12-month target, +51.6% from the last close
Low $212High $480
Buy7
Hold1
Sell0

Each firm’s latest rating in the last 90 days: 8 firms.

Latest analyst actions

DateFirmRatingTargetvs price
Nov 2Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$212+10.5%
Oct 26Wells FargoBuy, maintained$280+46.0%
Oct 21SusquehannaBuy, maintained$320+66.8%
Sep 18Morgan StanleyHold, reiterated$212+10.5%
Sep 15BernsteinBuy, maintained$480+150.3%
+3.8%average 20-day move after past Accumulation readings
+1.5%average move over the next 20 trading days in the last 3 years
±7%typical daily move, from the 14-day average range

Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions. These are analyst targets and historical base rates, which don’t guarantee future results.

Arm seasonality: the next 20 trading days

Over the next 20 trading days from Nov 4, Arm averaged +1.5% across the last 3 years, rising in 2 of them.

Next 20 trading days, by year

+19.8%2023+2.1%2024−13.4%2025

Average move and hit rate

WindowAverageYears higher
Next 5 trading days−2.0%1 of 3
Next 10 trading days−6.3%1 of 3
Next 15 trading days−0.9%2 of 3
Next 20 trading days+1.5%2 of 3
Next 30 trading days+1.3%2 of 3

For scale, ARM’s typical 20-trading-day move in either direction is about 13.3%.

Arm market cap and key statistics

Arm’s market cap is $204.1B, with a P/E ratio of 211.6 and revenue of $5.16B over the last twelve months.

Valuation

Market cap
$204.1B
P/E ratio
211.6
Forward P/E
93.5
EPS, TTM
$0.93
Gekko Fair Value
$246.84

Trading

Volume
8.05M
Avg volume, 20 days
5.16M
52-week high
$452.70
52-week low
$100.02
Shares outstanding
1.07B

Financials

Revenue, TTM
$5.16B
Profit margin
20.3%
Return on equity
13.4%
Quarterly earnings growth, YoY
+108.3%

Risk and income

Beta
3.94
Typical daily move
±7%
Typical 20-day move
±13.3%

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Arm stock FAQ

What is Arm’s market cap?

Arm’s market cap is $204.1B at the Nov 4, 2026 close of $191.80, with 1.07B shares outstanding. The shares trade on a P/E ratio of 211.6.

What is the Arm stock forecast?

The consensus analyst 12-month price target for Arm is $290.70, +51.6% from the last close. Of the 8 firms that rated the stock in the last 90 days, 7 rate it a buy, 1 a hold and 0 a sell. Gekko doesn’t publish price predictions of its own.

Is Arm stock overvalued or undervalued?

On Gekko’s estimate Arm is undervalued: the Nov 4, 2026 close of $191.80 is 22.3% below Gekko Fair Value of $246.84. Gekko Fair Value is recalculated every trading day, and a gap inside 5% either way counts as about fair value.

What is Arm’s 52-week high and low?

Arm’s 52-week high is $452.70 and its 52-week low is $100.02; it closed at $191.80 on Nov 4, 2026, +13.7% over the past year.

Is Arm stock a buy right now?

Gekko describes the data; it does not make buy or sell recommendations. On the swing-trade checklist, 4 of the 5 items with data read as supportive (gekkoindex, fair value, smart money and seasonality), 1 as mixed (trend). The checklist is a description of current data, not a recommendation.

Is there unusual options activity in Arm?

Gekko flagged 2 unusual options signals in Arm over the last 30 days, with $19.83M of flagged premium in calls and $2.19M in puts. The latest, bullish flow, was on Oct 22, 2026 with $15.32M in unusual premium. The signal-by-signal table is in Gekko.

How this page works

During US trading hours the price at the top of the page is a delayed quote, refreshed every 15 minutes; everything else is rebuilt after each US market close. The GekkoIndex, Gekko Fair Value and the checklist are Gekko’s own, and the Gekko Brief is written by AI from this page’s data and checked against it before it is published. How Gekko’s data works →

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